Rationality of Post Accession Migration

After EU enlargement in 2004, thousands of Polish workers moved to the UK. This study evaluates market efficiency in sorting Polish-born workers to locations where they enjoyed the highest returns to their individual skills, exploring Polish and UK labour force survey data to establish whether the Poles that emigrated to the UK did so on rational premises. The expected gains from migration reflect both observable characteristics (e.g. education and labour market experience) and unobservable traits (e.g. motivation). Returns to unobservable skills are identified via the Heckman (1979) self-selection correction procedure. A model of joint selection into migration and employment allows separating returns to unobservable traits that influenced the relocation choice. The results support the rationality of migration from Poland to the UK: those who left gained both in nominal and real terms. Rationality tests are less conclusive about the optimality of staying. Some of those who stayed might have earned more had they migrated. The outcomes suggest that the anticipated wage gains do not fully explain the intensity of migration between Poland and the UK. They underline the importance of also considering non-economic factors, i.e. social costs, in exploring post-accession migration movements. JEL Classification: C34,C35,J61